Counter-Strike 2

### Counter-Strike 2

83 ratings
Estimating CS:GO ELO / Rank Changes
By CERiNG
Using variables from a modified ELO / Glicko-2 system, the player can draw a rough estimate of their competitive skill level.

Award
Preface
An update will be coming soon, which includes my personal data collection supporting the SG2 Model.

As a CS:GO player, I believe it is vital to know your true rank when participating in competitive play. Not just to see your rank itself, but a value of where you are in the scope of all competitive players. For me, it is important because seeing a numerical representation of my rank pushes me to perform better to cross the threshold of the next rank. For others, it may just be an indicator to be cautious when close to de-ranking. Regardless, I started working on this model a year ago, and I would like to share it with the public to further test this model.
Introduction
In an attempt to simplify Valve’s cryptic “ELO” system in CS:GO, I have created a multi-purpose equation to track how you place within your given rank. Using some basic algebra, you as a player can track your placement within your rank and estimate how close you are to ranking up or de-ranking.

Note: This equation is not 100% reliable and does not yield perfect results. By putting this guide out for public use, I hope to get feedback to make this formula more precise.
A popular rumor states that there are only two major factors that affect your rank: Number of MVPs, and number of rounds won. Every other in-game factor does not matter in the scope of rank unless it leads to an MVP. Because of the unreliability of these two factors alone, there is one other minor factor that is loosely based on a variable from the Glicko-2 Model. This is implemented to modify your earned “ELO” as to lengthen the process of ranking up or down.
Introducing the SG2 Model
The Simplified Glicko-2 Model is a formula accompanied by a set of rules that we will use to track your rank. I have developed this system off of the current modified “Glicko-2” ELO system that is currently used in CS:GO ranking calculation. Listed below, there are some variables that you must use to use the equation.

• Δϵ – The change in your SG2 skill level.
• Sᵧ – Your team’s score.
• Sₒ – The opposing team’s score.
• Eₒ – The opposing team’s total skill/ELO.
• Eᵧ – Your team’s total skill/ELO.
• m – The number of MVPs you earned.
• σ – A “Sigma” modifier based on win/loss streak.
When you rank up or de-rank, you can start recording your SG2 skill level according to the SG2 base value of your new rank.

Examples include that...
• Silver III has a starting value of 300.
• Gold Nova 2 has a starting value of 800.
• The Global Elite has a starting value of 1800.
Note: Silver I has a skill floor of 0, and The Global Elite has a skill ceiling of 1900.
Recording Team Skill/ELO
You may be wondering how you can figure out you and your opponent’s average skill level. Remember that at the end of a competitive match, every player’s rank is displayed for a few seconds. Take a screenshot of your screen when the ranks pop up.

Note: You will not be able to download your match and view the ranks from the demo.

Both the Eₒ and Eᵧ values are a sum of ranks on one team. Each given rank (including your own) uses a numerical identifier, rather than an SG2 skill value.

Examples include that...
• Silver I has a point value of 1.
• Gold Nova Master has a point value of 10.
• Legendary Eagle has a point value of 15.
So, if your team is made up of 3 Nova Master (10) players and 2 Nova 3 (9) players, that team’s skill would be 48.
Scoring in Incidental Situations
If someone is unranked, simply average the players who have ranks, and assign a substitute rank for the unranked player.

For example, if your team is made up of 3 Silver Elite (5) players, 1 unranked player, and a Silver IV (4) player, the substitute rank would be 19 divided by 4, or 4.75. Round the number to the nearest integer so the substitute rank is 5.

If someone leaves or is kicked, consider how many rounds a specific bot is on your team. I usually record this information on a scrap sheet of paper, tallying how many rounds a bot is on one team. If the player returns before the match ends, subtract the number of rounds they were gone divided by 10. If they do not, use the same technique as for an unranked player, then subtract the number of rounds they were gone divided by 10.

For example, let’s say your team is made up of 2 MGE (13) players, 1 MG2 (12) player, 1 DMG (14) player, and a player who is kicked. The game lasts all 30 rounds and the kicked player was replaced by a bot during the middle of the 12th round. This means a bot was in-game for 18 rounds. The substitute rank before factoring in leave penalties is 13, but after subtracting 18/10 (1.8), the new substitute rank is 11.2. Round this number to the nearest integer so that the final substitute rank is 11.

Forfeit wins and losses modify the Sᵧ and Sₒ values rather than the Eₒ and Eᵧ values. The team that wins the forfeit game receives 32 points, and the team that forfeits the game receives the amount of points they have at the end of the game.
The Sigma Modifier
The σ value at the end of the equation is a special one, and takes on different properties when on a winning streak, losing streak, or draw. For winning streaks, simply let the value equal the number of games you have won in a row. For losing streaks, your first loss sets the value to 1/16, the second 1/8, then 1/4, 1/2, and then 1, 2, 3, and so on. The maximum value that this modifier can take on is 16, which is also the value that is set to in any tie game.
Deviation
Just to make sure the equation is as accurate as possible; the set deviation of this equation is 15 points above and below from the SG2 base values of a given rank. This means you could rank up from Silver Elite Master to Gold Nova 1 in the range of 685 to 715 points, but is most likely as you approach 700 points.
Example Calculation
Let’s say your team wins a game:
• The final score is 16 to 9.
• The enemy team is made up of all Nova 2 players.
• One of the enemy players left during the 13th round and came back during the 20th round.
• You earned 2 MVPs.
• This is the third game you have won consecutively.
• Your current SG2 skill level is 839.
Your values will look like this:
• Sᵧ = 16
• Sₒ = 9
• Eₒ = 4(8) + 1(8) - (8/10) = 39.2 = 39
• Eᵧ = 5*8 = 40
• m = 2
• σ = 3
Your initial calculation will look something like this:

This comes out to the final value of 7.64 (round up to 8). Adding this to your initial SG2 skill level puts your new skill level at 847.
Closing Remarks
For your calculations, I recommend Symbolab[www.symbolab.com]. It’s a great website for calculating almost any equation, it’s free and it may help you with school work too.

If you made it this far, thank you for reading this guide, I really appreciate it! I hope to further fine-tune this guide to make it as accurate as possible.

You can donate to me by clicking the button below if you want more guides like this.

Thanks again and happy gaming,
Tekryon
COLOMBINHA PEEK Nov 30 @ 4:44pm
Cool explanation friend. Is this 5/3 fraction reliable our maybe their are using some parametric distribution hypotesis over Sy - So (Chess Elo uses logistic i think?) and 3 ~ pi for example?
chonka Dec 14, 2022 @ 7:36am
no internet connection Dec 8, 2022 @ 4:16am
For anyone who cares: I have made a simple program for calculating the SG2 elo gain after a match

Rezic Apr 8, 2022 @ 11:49am
How does sigma change after winning or losing after a forfeited match? Assuming sigma = 16 after a forfeit.
Ganathor (غَناطَرْ) Mar 9, 2022 @ 7:29am
Hi, I am really interested in this topic and I made an excel table to check the formaula and allow everyone to use it if they want. I added you to friends so we can speak a little bit about how you managed to work out that formula (if you want).
In addition I wanted you to know that I just discovered a guide which is a copy in Spanish from this one (although in fact I found this because of it but this is way older, so you deserve the merit not him). So if you want to take action against it I leave the link below:
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2770122301
Forces of Heaven Jul 14, 2021 @ 4:01pm
I have finished doing the calculations. This is not a theory, and I confirm the deviation of the calculation, it is approximately 15 points above and below. The deviation of the problem was more than anything when you get a very long streak of wins. Kudos to the creator, it's a great find.
Forces of Heaven Jul 14, 2021 @ 1:09am
I have records of my rank up. In hours, I will notify if this method is efficient, or if it is approximate, or has faults.
いっぱい刺します Feb 22, 2021 @ 10:40am
you put it at 16
Giuseppe Cadura May 26, 2020 @ 7:13am
if I tie the game, in the sigma do I put 0.5?
mork Apr 23, 2020 @ 12:53pm
2 years later and I’m wondering if this is accurate or is it only a theory