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Kinmen 1996

ROChina Forces x PRChina Forces
Complexity: 7.28 Map: 44x32
Dates: PM 4/7/1996-AM 4/15/1996
"Crossing a Line"
-- hypothetical PLA invasion of Kinmen Islands in April 1996.

by Nikolai Ezhov

Date: April 7th, 1996
Location: Kinmen Islands, Fujian Province, China.
Map Scale: 1km/hex
Time Scale: Half a day/turn
Unit Scale: Battalion/Company
Length: 16 turns

Unit Colors:
Yellow on Yellow: People's Liberation Army(PLA)
Blue on Yellow: People's Liberation Army Navy(PLAN)
White on Yellow: People's Liberation Army Air Force(PLAAF)
Red on Blue: Republic of China National Army(ROCNA)
Black on Blue: Republic of China Navy(ROCN)
White of Blue: Republic of China Air Force(ROCAF)
White on Lt.Blue: Republic of China irregulars (Civil Defense)

38 years after the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1958 and 8 years after the death of nationalist dictator Chiang Chin-kuo, the island of Kinmen was already abandoned as a “forward base” along with all those counter-offensive plans by the Republic of China Armed Forces. ROC Army garrison on the island were gradually reduced to 80,000, and was to be further downsized to 23000. The warmed-up relationship between Taipei and Beijing administration seemed eliminate the long-lived possibility of another Chinese civil war after 1949.
However, things can go worse very fast. In June 1995, president Lee Teng-hui paid an unofficial visit to the United States, which was considered as a sign of “splitting China” by Beijing. The PRC government was furious over the U.S.'s policy reversal. As a retaliation, she announced to conduct missile tests near ROC territory. At the same time, the PRC mobilized forces in Fujian. In the later part of July and early August numerous commentaries were published by Xinhua and the People's Daily condemning Lee and his cross-strait policies. From October 31st to November 23rd, the People's Liberation Army held an amphibious landing exercise involving 10000 soldiers from 91st Infantry Division, 61 naval vessels and 50 aircraft.
In March 1996, the crisis evolved into its second phase when the first direct presidential election in the history of the Republic of China was about to held. Another set of missile firings, accompanied by live ammunition exercises and amphibious landing maneuvers occurred in early- and mid-1996. Leaked document of the exercise “Joint Force 963” by ROC spies showed that there were plans of actual military operations if “the election came out with the worst result”. The United States, on the contrary, responded by staging the biggest display of American military might in Asia since the Vietnam War. Two aircraft carrier battle groups, Carrier Group Seven centered on USS Nimitz, and Carrier Group Five centered on USS Independence, were present in the region as well as the amphibious assault ship USS Belleau Wood. The crisis forced the Chinese leadership in 1996 to acknowledge its inability to stop U.S. forces from coming to Taiwan's assistance.
So what would happen if “the worst result” of the election actually happened? There could be many targets for the People's Liberation Army, and there were rumors that the PLA was intended to take a ROC-held remote islet, e.g. Tungju or Wuqiu. But there could be other possibilities if the United States didn't directly intervene with her Carrier Battle Groups.
Kinmen islands, in fact, could be a good target for a decisive operation. Loss of Kinmen along with 80,000 ROCA troops and 50,000 civilians on it would do a devastating blow to the fame of Lee Teng-hui administration, destabilize the political environment in Taiwan and force her to stop her activities that undesired by Beijing. But there were risks for the People's Republic that to be further isolated by international community after the Tiananmen massacre, or even face a military catastrophe. Either way would impact on the wavering legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party.


Notes:
Northern parts of Kinmen, Lieyu, Dadan, and Erdan islands are neighbored with shallow water. All PLA infantry battalions and regiments can cross shallow water freely. Not all PLA divisions are available to maneuver at the beginning of the war, representing the limitation of PLA sealifting capabilities.
Eliminating ROC Army organic forces, rather than seizing VP positions, gives PRChina Forces player more VP bonus. Eliminating PLA organic forces, rather than defending VP positions, gives ROChina Forces player more VP bonus as well.

Scenario designed by Nikolai Ezhov
Special thanks to Larkloss (provides me lots of precious source on ROC military)