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Khabarovsk 79

PRChina Forces x Soviet Union
Complexity: 25.06 Map: 54x59
Dates: 2/28/1979-3/15/1979
"Snowstorm Over the Ussuri"
-- Hypothetical Chinese invasion of Khabarovsk, 1979. v1.1

Time: February 28th, 1979
Location: Khabarovsk Krai, Soviet Union
Map scale: 2.5km/hex
Time scale: one day per turn
Time length: 16 turns
Unit scale: battalion/company.


"Hitler was an adventurist and a reckless maniac, but Stalin perceived him as a rational statesman. Stalin's tendency to mistake illusions for reality prevented him from seeing the same fault in Hitler. (...)The lesson of 1941 must not be forgotten today in our relations with China. Mao Tse-tung also has a tendency to confuse reality and his frenzied perceptions of it. Thus we should consider the possibility of irrational adventures being attempted by the Maoist leadership."
-- "LET HISTORY JUDGE, The origins and consequences of Stalinism", by Roy A.Medvedev, Soviet historian and dissident.

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Major events:
1. As the capital of Khabarovsk Krai, major hub on the Tran-Siberian Railway, and a stronghold in the Far Eastern region of the Soviet Union, the city of Khabarovsk held lots of major command centers of the Soviet Armed Forces. Nevertheless, near the town of Korfovsky, south of the city, there is a nuclear weapon arsenal complex, a.k.a. "Khabarovsk-47". If these high commands and sensitive complexes are destroyed by the People's Liberation Army, it will cause major mayhem to the Soviets, and grant the Chinese with VP bonus.
2. The Soviets need some time to evacuate these commands and complexes. The Soviet Armed Forces must cover the evacuation operation.
3. The Soviets have set strong defensive forces near the city. However, due to the readiness and mobilization system of the Soviet Army, these units needs undetermined time to accomplish mobilization, therefore being put into the theater.
4. Before the end of mobilization, those units not absorbed into mobilized units will be organized into the "barracks garrison" formations. Their mission is to guard the barrack to ensure the continuation of the mobilization. Once the mobilization is finished completely, these garrison units will be disbanded and fill up other formations as replacements.
5. If the barracks fell to Chinese hands before the end of mobilization, the further mobilization will halt.
6. If the PLA seize major Soviet barracks and airbases, the Chinese will recover valuable equipment left there by the Soviets These will cause a long-term damage to the Soviet Union, and cause VP bonus to the Chinese. Soviet regaining control of these positions will not recover the VP.
7. If a Soviet High HQ was destroyed by the PLA, there are chances that the PLA will acquire the password book used by the Soviet Armed Forces. These will give the Chinese a 2-turn-length bonus of theater recon level boost, until the Soviets change its password. This could only happen once in the scenario.
8. The Soviets are caught by surprise, and suffer a Shock penalty in Turn 1 and Turn 2. Soviet Shock recovers in Turn 3.
9. The Soviet reinforcements will come from all directions. However, the nearby Soviet formations also met the problem with mobilization and shaping operations conducted by the PLA, so they can only spare part of their force.

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Description:
February 1979. The People's Republic of China launched its "self-defense war" against the communist Vietnam, in order to "give a lesson" to the Le Duan administration which had invaded China-backed Komer Rogue. Therefore, the movement of the major threat of China and the major ally of Vietnam, the Soviet Union, was an inevitable part of the war. As a result, in February 1972, the People's Liberation Army(PLA) mobilized not only its forces at Sino-Vietnam border, but also those at Sino-Soviet border. All PLA units in northern China were mobilized, some even maneuvered to defense positions. The PLA's plan was to defend an army-level harassment in northern border. At the end it was proved that the Soviet Union did not mobilize its forces in Far Eastern and Trans-Baikal military districts, only strengthen its commitment in the Group of Soviet Forces in Mongolia. Chinese forces in its northern provinces were relieved from combat alert after March 1979, when China declared a complete pull-out from Vietnamese territory.

This scenario, however, hypothesizes a bolder possibility: because of the Chinese awareness of a mass Soviet invasion as the retaliation to the Sino-Vietnamese War, the PLA decided to launch a preemptive attack against the city of Khabarovsk, a major hub on the Tran-Siberian Railway, to disorganize the Soviet invasion. On the other hand, the Soviet politburo hesitates facing conflicting evidences and false information, and does not mobilize its forces. Khabarovsk is assaulted without any preparation.

This scenario is a showcase of the capability of the People's Liberation Army in the late-1970's and early-1980's. The PLA's commitment force is 23rd Army Corps, after strengthened with several units and formations. Moreover, PLA 68th and 16th Army Corps are also conduction shaping operations on the left and right flank of the main thrust, respectively, in order to tie down other formations of the Soviet 15th Combined Arms Army. The PLA's objective is (1) to cut off the Tran-Siberian Railway, disorganize the cooperation between the Trans-Baikal and Far Eastern Military Districts, and (2) to seize the city of Khabarovsk, destroy this center of command, material and manpower in far-eastern Soviet Union. The operation is to be conducted in late February and early March, when the Ussuri River was still frozen. Therefore, by the time the Soviets finished mobilization and reorganization, there will be ice flood in the defrost Ussuri River, blocking the Soviet Army from retaliate across the river.

In the Soviet aspect, the scenario is a best show of Soviet mobilization system in the time of war. There are 6 Soviet Motorized Rifle Divisions and 1 Landing Assault Brigade involving in the scenario, along with a lot of Air Force (VVS), Air Defense Force(PVO), Interior Troops (VV MVD) and KGB Border Troops. The Soviets are theoretically way stronger than the Chinese. However, among them there are 3 reduced division and 3 cadre divisions. Without pre-warning, a reduced division should take 1-2 weeks to mobilize, and a cadre division needs a month or more. In the scenario as long as 16 days, they can't fully mobilize at all. In fact, some of the "reinforcements" set in the scenario will never arrive or activate, and during the early stage of the conflict the Soviets will suffer severe shortage of manpower. These vividly reflect the dilemma the Soviets have to meet in reality. Meanwhile, there are a lot of high commands deployed in the city of Khabarovsk, including the headquarters of Far Eastern Military District, 15th Combined Arms Army, 1st Air Army, 11th Independent Army PVO, Far Eastern and East-Siberian District of VV MVD, Far Eastern Border District of KGB Border Troops. There is also a nuclear weapon stockpile complex "Khabarovsk-47" positioned in barely 27 kilometers to the Sino-Soviet border. The safety of these commands and sensitive complexes will determine the result of the war.

Frozen rivers and lakes will strike great impacts on tactical and operational aspects for both sides. The frozen river of Ussuri itself has become a convenient "highway" for both sides. It also traps a KGB border patrol boat brigade in the bay, but it can still blockade the river with firepower, be aware of it.

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Abbreviation on Soviet formations
In most cases, Soviet formation and unit names are abbreviated in Russian type:
UR=Fortified Region
opab=Independent Machine gun-Artillery Battalion
omsb=Independent Motorized Rifle Battalion
otb=Independent Tank Battalion
oad=Independent Artillery Battalion
ore