Mythical Item Price Checking

[gandalf9740]

Here everyone is welcome to inquire about the general pricing of known mythicals based on monthly averages drop below a price of an item you would like to have before you make a purchace and or sell an itemhope this helps

[Azzy_]

Need a price check on a freezing vintage Ushanka. Have no idea what it's worth

[gandalf9740]

Originally posted by AzuraAwakening:

Need a price check on a freezing vintage Ushanka. Have no idea what it's worth

the current price for http://steamcommunity.com/id/1STH1S34SYM0D3/inventory/#304930_2_930379232316708324 is $8.89 hope that helped however the price will change once more sell and the graph gets more info

[NSTM]

Originally posted by AzuraAwakening:

Need a price check on a freezing vintage Ushanka. Have no idea what it's worth

Well, it is an Ushanka with a freezing effect, so the effect matches, in a sense. Its value, I would estimate to be ~10-15, USD. However, being from a purchaseable box, its value is soon to drop.

[NSTM]

There is a large variety of factors when calculating the price of a mythical.

Lets put the effects into 3 categories, with each separate type listed by value.
Underlined is luminescent.

"Head" Effects

These are the effects that can only be on headwear items (not just hats!) such as headphones, or glasses.
Effects

• Atomic (9 electrons with glowing trails around your head. TheUnion's favorite! :D)
  
• Pyrotechnic (Fireworks! :D)
  
• Glowing (Like a depiction of a god.)
  
• Party (Strobe lights, Blue and Gold)

These effects are somewhat more expensive when compared to other effects on the same cosmetic.

"Aura" effects

Effects that have glowing colored orbs, beautifully bright at night, with nice effects closely.
Effects

• Radioactive (A green hybrid of "energized" particles and falling droplets similar to freezing, Green aura)
  
• Energized (A cyan blue, rapidly spinning 3 arm cross, Light blue aura)
  
• Freezing (Tiny white particles fluttering down, Blue aura)
  
• Melting (Small orange particles flying off, Orange aura)

These effects have good value for glowing quite a bit, especially at night.

"Trailing" Effects

These effects leave a trail, a definite trail. You can see it maybe ~2.5 to 5 meters behind them.
Effects

• Wealthy (get money mofo Green Money drops from you. These go through floors, so be careful!)
  
• Burning (Emit small fire/ember particles that trail behind you. One of my personal favorites, having Inferno.)
  
• Steampunk (Bubbling with gears)
  
• Meta (Shiny+Bubbling+Purple. It's better than some effects, but it's not as detailed as the others.)
  
• Bubbling (One of the lesser tiered effects, leaving a trail of bubble particles behind you. an Ok effect, for most people. but there are always better choices.)

Trails are worth more to some people. It's pretty cool, especially in vehicles.

"Emitted" Effects

Effects that either appear and disappear from the body, or appear and dissappear midair.
Effects

• Glitched (Green Zeros/Ones Flicker between eachother and dissappear.)
  
• Lovely (Pink hearts popping in and out.)
  
• Musical (White 8th notes flying away from the body)
  
• Electric (Zapping/Spark particles fly towards the item, forming midair.)

More of a simpler effect. Still very nice though, decent values.
Confetti is a group of it's own, being a simple, small, cheap, yet nice effect. Moving on...

"Event" Effects

The effects that con only come from special boxes during a certain time.
Effects

• Haunted (sp00ky skulls fly around your head in seemingly elliptical/oblong patterns)
  
• Holiday Spirit (Shiny that trails and comes in red, yellow, green, and blue)

These effects are more valuable than normal drop effects due to being limited.

"Removed" Effects

By removed, I mean unable to obtain from drops anymore. They exist, but more cannot go into circulation.
Effects

• Rainbow (A rainbow is above your head. Will always stay upright at a fixed position relative to your head.)
  
• Divine (A halo is above your head. Same rules apply with rainbow.)

Unable to obtain by normal unboxing anymore. These are of extreme value due to such.

litterally shit

not even gonna explain this

• Shiny
  
• Cosmic

These effects scrape the bottom of the barrel. Trade them off to an idiot, fast.

What about the actual values?

Well, there are even more factors calculating values.
Cosmetics > Skins in most values.

Pricing

Some general rules:

• It has an effect, it has a mythic. However, base price of the mythic is calculated based on the skin without an effect. If the sells for dirt cheap, having an effect won't change too much.
  
• If the box in which the item comes from is slowly coming out of circulation, that will increase the price, and vice versa.
  
• The effect also dictates how high (or low!) the value of the item can reach. The list above can help with this as well.
  
• The more, the better. If the skin has base luminessence or dynamic, it'll go for more.

"Matching" Effects

I'm sure you know this, but if an effect matches the skin it's on, its value can increase quite well. I.E. http://steamcommunity.com/id/NSTM9/inventory/#304930_2_183888574210381632

Well, thats pretty much it, for now. More to come.

[gandalf9740]

Originally posted by Coryza:

There is a large variety of factors when calculating

i simply calculate the mean by taking the result of what sold in one month adding it and dividing it by the amount of how many sold thats how you calculate the price of any item using this type of information with out having to guess...to simplify what im trying to say "mean" is the "average" a calculated "central" value of a set of numbers. To calculate: just add all the numbers, then divide by how many numbers there are. This gives an exact average with out the need of having to take into account all of the other factors as this is 100% the way to calculate average in any graph giving you numbers in this case the line graph

[gandalf9740]

let's take into consideration http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/304930/Burning%20Sombrero here im going to be using the monthly meadian sale prices. starting on aug 9. to september 8. the prices are $10.88, $11.81, $11.27, $11.62, $5.00, $17.73, $8.01, $12.09. 8 recorded sales all these prices added up make for a total of $88.41 divide that by the total number which is 8 you get the exact number which is $11.05125 thus giving you your exact answer. This formula should give everyone the price of any item with a previous sale history the method above provided by Coryza: you can use for items that have no recent history of sale. Take a screen shot of this if you wish to do the math your self for any item you wish to have the price of. or you can just ask me so i can do the math for you.

[NSTM]

Averages don't necessarily equal the sale value. Most of the time, those value are entirely skewed from people selling them at lower value to make quick sales. By the logic you are stating, a Musical Headdress would be worth ~5.5 dollars, USD.

Musical Earbuds (matching effect, discontinued box, mask) would be worth ~25-30 USD.
By just doing averages, the value is significantly less, ~%40-50 percent.

There isn't really much formulas when finding the value of items, so I'll try to make some/come up with some.

[gandalf9740]

Originally posted by Coryza:

.

This is true there is no way around the fact that people sell for less but people also sell for more and on some occasions items are overpaid for there is no escaping it this is the closest thing in accuracy when determining the prices so far until something else comes up. Aslong as things keep selling in that manner as they will the prices will continue to produce that median price that may or may not be lower or higher than what people want but that is the price based on what the graph says. these disco items may be getting harder to obtain but the raw amount of them still being traded keeps the prices as low as they are when the demand increases and the supply decreases the price will naturally go up. The graph is all we have in finding out prices for every game that currently has its own market in steam.

[ArmoredInsecta]

I would like to check my mythical anters Price and will the price go up or down in the future?

[gandalf9740]

Originally posted by Symetra:

I would like to check my mythical anters Price and will the price go up or down in the future?

the current price for http://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561198070405810/inventory/#304930_2_924749823788074894 is $17.97 variable to change to broaden the spectrum of change from $16-20, concerning the price in the future the box is still availiable but less are being put up so the price has been steadily increasing since the realease of the box. Hope this helped

[NSTM]

I mean, honestly, finding averages isn't hard to do. Anyone can do that.

Also Symmetra, the price for Antlers with a mid-tier effect as a mask would be around 20-25, price to go up, as the blue box is much less in circulation. If you are selling this item, I suggest selling at $23.00 to make a profit of 20 dollars.

[gandalf9740]

Originally posted by Coryza:

I mean, honestly, finding averages isn't hard to do. Anyone can do that.

Also Symmetra, the price for Antlers with a mid-tier effect as a mask would be around 20-25, price to go up, as the blue box is much less in circulation. If you are selling this item, I suggest selling at $23.00 to make a profit of 20 dollars.

only three times since september of last year has a buring antler sold over the price of 20 dollars out of over 50+ sales chances are your antlers are going to sit in the market if you place them at 23 dollars since people are constantly selling lower than 20 dollars more than likely your antlers wont be able to sell anytime soon considering it took 1 year for the item to sell 3 times over the price of 19.99, but hey who knows there where 3 desperate guys willing to over pay in a years span put it up and and see what happens no harm in it

[NSTM]

Again, it sells for a low amount, but that's not its actual value. The average is an average price, again skewed entirely by desperate sales for quick money. Besides that, a legendary mask with a mid tier effect would be valued at above 20 dollars. Even if you sold it at 23 dollars, It would be the 3rd cheapest and actually good effect that would be on antlers in the market. Just because it averaged that much isn't the value of it, it's just an average.

[gandalf9740]

Originally posted by Coryza:

Again, it sells for a low amount, but that's not its actual value. The average is an average price, again skewed entirely by desperate sales for quick money. Besides that, a legendary mask with a mid tier effect would be valued at above 20 dollars. Even if you sold it at 23 dollars, It would be the 3rd cheapest and actually good effect that would be on antlers in the market. Just because it averaged that much isn't the value of it, it's just an average.

the market is sadly community controlled and there is no set price for any item as opposed to stockpile items the community sales in turn influence the price so if people sell the item for lower, then that in turn is what the price will adjust to. If the range where to be from 20-25 then people would sell it for that but its not whats happening its incunclusive.

[ArmoredInsecta]

I feel like I just started a argument ._.