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I mean if they did do a contest like they did in SSB4 they only character the people would vote for would be sans(idk why)
Get your head out of the gutter. Smash as in brawling like in smash brothers.
Let me put it this way:
Shovel Knight's been out for years more than Hat in Time (June 2014 vs. Oct. 2017). It was received with unanimous praise, became the new king of indie games, its namesake protagonist became the subject of a long line of cameos, and during the Smash Ballot he was not an uncommon vote...and the best he got was an Assist Trophy. Shantae, whom what she lacks in modern-day popularity (Compared to Shovel Knight, anyway), she makes up for in seniority, only received a Spirit or two.
A Hat in Time is a fine game. It has a lot to be proud of. It has even performed commendably well, with lifetime sales recently breaking 1M (Even if that's less than half of Shovel Knight's lifetime sales). But indie darlings who have had significant demand couldn't make it to fighter, and with that in mind? Hat Kid doesn't stand a chance.
This pretty much sums up my thoughts too. I could see Hat Kid as a spirit but even that's unlikely.