The Book of Unwritten Tales

The Book of Unwritten Tales

Chrogion 20. Apr. 2013 um 7:24 Uhr
fortune wheel probability
After you have "guessed" the color on the wheel of fortune correctly for 3 times there is a dialog option that says that the probability is 1 to 4096. Is this really correct? To my understanding we have:

4 different colors
3 independent guesses

where each guess has a probability of 1/4 = 25%
Because each guess is independent, we have a total probability of (1/4)^3 to guess correctly three times in a row (where ^ denotes the power operator)

(1/4)^3 = 4^(-3) = 1/64 = 1.5625% which is different from 1/4096 (approximately 0.02 percent)

Is the calculation in the game incorrect or have I made a mistake?
Zuletzt bearbeitet von Chrogion; 20. Apr. 2013 um 10:25 Uhr
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mendel 20. Apr. 2013 um 15:41 Uhr 
The calculation in the game is incorrect, I noticed that too when I first played it. If you had to guess the exact slot on the wheel each time, you'd get 4096=16^3. My guess was that the game designers initially planned it that way and then found the puzzle takes too long and gets tedious.

In addition, the nails on the wheel are in the wrong position. They need to be on the borders between colored areas and not in the middle, so that when the swinging peg ends up between two nails, it is clear what area it is on..
mikeydsc 14. Sep. 2013 um 17:21 Uhr 
so we really do have to guess 3 times? I have been at this spot for an hour now and getting tired of this ridiculous low odds of guessing 3 in a row...must be some trick to this?
look into the future and guess the first one right.
mikeydsc 14. Sep. 2013 um 23:38 Uhr 
I wont spoil what it ended up being but it sure was easier than it looks
MASTAN 15. Sep. 2013 um 6:04 Uhr 
The game does not mention that 1 in 4096 is correct answer. I tried 1 in 4096 and one in a million, and both times merchant said it was correct. So the merchant lacks math skills, not the game.
Jhoonaz 16. Sep. 2013 um 14:36 Uhr 
I know this toppic is over an year old, but thats not a reason to add a fun fact:
If you look closely at the concept art of the scene at the end of the game, you will discover, that the weel has not only four colours: It has also 4 symbols combined with the colours. So there is a red, green, yellow and blue version of every symbol. It seems, that it was indeed planed with a probability of 1/4096.
Zuletzt bearbeitet von Chaos "Fox" Overlord; 6. Dez. 2014 um 13:45 Uhr
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