Sales and Revenue analytics

[AdahnGorion]

The game have now launched in Early Access - In this thread we will debate sales numbers, revenue and the debacle with "evil" Krafton.

So far the game have been recieved very well from the community and most reviews are very positive about the game, despite the game being early beta and was launched in EA.
Krafton tried to prevent a launch last year and even fired the CEO (whom got reinstated)

Krafton allegedly (it is in the court notes) used chatgpt to try and prevent a bonus payout for the former owners (225m and 25m for staff) if the game reached a certain amount of revenue. Now UW have until semptember to reach their goal.

The first 69.8m of revenue is not part of the bonus, but after that the former owners and staff will start their bonus payout with $3.12 gained per $1 revenue.

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Lets look at statistics. UW posted both 1m sales and then later 2m sales, in these the gamepass players are counted as well (despite the licence for gamepass being static, we will talk about that later)

If we look at Steam, then analytics sites like Gamelaytic, have these numbers.
https://gamalytic.com/game/1962700

Copies sold: 527.9k (263.9k - 791.9k)
Gross revenue (base game): $14.2m ($7.1m - $21.3m)
Top 3 countries - 22,1 % of players are Chinese, 21.6% are US and 7% are Russians


Now I always go with the highest numbers (even if that is the least realistic)
So lets assume it made 21.3m revenue already from Steam, then we can factor in the Xbox licence (that is typically 15-25m) and then we have to remember EGS, they make up like 1-3m revenue.

Then we have to factor in old revenue from other games (all revenue counts) estimates around 2-5m here.

So best outcome for the first 24 hours is around 54m
But wait. We have to factor in Valves cut (on steam) for the first 10m revenue that is 30% and from 10-50 it is 25%.

If we go by a realistic output of it all, not the highest, then revenue is most likely around 36m in revenue. That would mean they still need 33,5m revenue to even start the bonus and they need around 150m to get the full amount.

Lets tinker with numbers. If they got extended for earnout period until March 2027 instead of september 2026, then they would need to sell around 170k copies each month from now on until march.


Peak concurrent numbers were high on steam at 467,582, but revenue is very important to factor in here (and the cheap price) over 100k of those players were Chinese players alone.
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Overall Krafton will be happy about this numbers and it is certain that the Gamepass deal (albeit a singular high licence agreement) hurt sales on Steam, where the game could have been even higher. The revenue is also nowhere near to trigger any bonus and most likely will not during this period, unless we see a large influx of players on a big update before september/march.

Overall with how numbers have shaped Krafton seems to gain the most from this and they will be happy with the moderate support for the game. The positive thing is that this means that the game most likely will survive its EA period and fully release in 3 years time.

I do have a copy on my review account, but I will also buy it here eventually (most likely closer to full release)
Krafton have been known for closing down EA projects that do not become a golden cow, but the luck of players with S2 is that the court decision pretty much secure their subsidiary UW to not get meddled with the first year and with the modeate numbers, it will be all win for Krafton (and thus also the subsidary)


Whom lose from current numbers?
The former owners are most likely never going to see any bonus payout with current numbers and trends in revenue. The 350 staff is not going to see any of the 25m bonus either (albeit I hope they do get something for their awesome work and passion)


We can keep the thread to debate future numbers. Feel free to come with your own conclusions, numbers and analytics. Also feel free to talk about if you are happy with supporting Krafton (that is one of the reason I was reluctant, because I dislike them getting the independent studio, we see this way to often and sometimes it hinders creativity etc)


Sources used are:
https://gamalytic.com/game/1962700
https://steamdb.info/app/1962700/charts/
Official Dalaware court database (for the specific case of Krafton vs UW)
Leaked licence agreement revenue numbers for Xbox Gamepass from Phil Spencer (reported by many different sites)
Official X of Subnautica 2 (UW)


Have a wonderful day all and enjoy your beta testing! It seems like it is great for the vast majority and I hope it will continue to progress well, despite the Krafton taint.

[QueenPixxa]

I couldn't read beyond the 30% Valve's cut... That's extortionate, I'm appalled.

[Shintai]

Valve doesnt take 30% on a title like this. Its likely 10%.

[MaSeKind]

No we won't

[Rune]

They surely must have sold more than 527K copies given that 467,582
was the 24-hour peak.

[AdahnGorion]

Originally posted by QueenPixxa:

I couldn't read beyond the 30% Valve's cut... That's extortionate, I'm appalled.

It is only for the first 10m revenue, but that has always been the price of using steam as a platform.

The way ti works is that Valve gives both the dev/publishers and consumers perks from said cut. This is why we have forums, reviews, linux support, cloud saves, refund policies, support, workshop, curatur, remove play, controller support, family sharing, market, accounts, etc.

If they lowered those cuts we would see some of this cut down, like with what you see on other platforms (take EGS as an example here)
The publishers basically pays for us to get these features (we do pay a tad higher price here tbh as well, but it is worth it) they get the best advertisement they can get and tools at their disposal (not just workshop and forums)

Many of the other platforms also take 30% or 20-25% the ones with lower are often without basic consumer perks, some of them does not even have a shoppingcart....

So.
0-10m revenue = 30% cut
10-50m revenue ) 25% cut
50m + = 20% cut

Originally posted by Shintai:

Valve doesnt take 30% on a title like this. Its likely 10%.

Incorrect. They take these from all, there is no differnece or special cases.

[Jacknm2]

I can see them extending it to March 2027. and I agree the numbers might not add up, but they will get some of the bonus, even if its not the full amount.

If I were a founder or an employee I'd still be over the moon to even hit half the bonus.

I've bought two copies, myself and my partners.

[GrimAtrament]

Originally posted by QueenPixxa:

I couldn't read beyond the 30% Valve's cut... That's extortionate, I'm appalled.

You mean the percentage every console also takes?

[Obiswift]

I couldn't be bothered to read all that and didn't see the point of it.

[AdahnGorion]

Originally posted by Rune:

They surely must have sold more than 527K copies given that 467,582
was the 24-hour peak.

It updates from time to time. I personally think it is closer to 800k There are some overlap and since almost 50% of the entire playerbase is Chinese/US, then we ofc will see a tad overlap, but not much.

Expect concurrent to be like 550-600k during overlap periods like this weekend (tomorrow) where it will peak the highest. usually it is 10-20% extra concurrent than normal peaks.

But even with 1m sales on steam the numbers are still low (remember I tried to go with way to high numbers, even for the licence deal, to make sure it was higher rather than lower in estimates)

These are fine numbers btw! But they benefit Krafton the most sadly. As you might have noticed I am not really a fan of big corporations taking over all the independent studios, but will ofc like most other people eventually buy in (if the game is worth it) this seems to be worth it, once it is in a tad better state (I loved the first)

I wish UW was independent still.

[One Eyed King Is Potato]

Originally posted by QueenPixxa:

I couldn't read beyond the 30% Valve's cut... That's extortionate, I'm appalled.

everywhere take 30% and I do mean everywhere Epic doesn't but they have yet to make a profit the game store they have.

steam also seems to have a Tiered Structure but that doesn't matter as this is based on sales numbers and they have sold over a million copies of this game not counting revenue that came from the earlier games and I'm unsure if Krafton is getting much after said lawsuit.

[Rune]

Steam's Cut
First $10 Million, 30%
$10M to $50 Million, 25%
Over $50 Million, 20%

[Caz]

Originally posted by QueenPixxa:

I couldn't read beyond the 30% Valve's cut... That's extortionate, I'm appalled.

🥱 That’s perfectly normal. You can’t run a business without income. That’s where Valve pays for keeping Steam in operation. Publishers take far more than 30% and I don’t see you complaining about that

[BunnySpirit]

Originally posted by Obiswift:

I couldn't be bothered to read all that and didn't see the point of it.

Do you often engage with things you supposedly find pointless, or is that just an online habit? It is rather curious, most people simply ignore conversations they genuinely see no value in, especially when there are countless other ways to spend their time.

[AdahnGorion]

Originally posted by Jacknm2:

I can see them extending it to March 2027. and I agree the numbers might not add up, but they will get some of the bonus, even if its not the full amount.

If I were a founder or an employee I'd still be over the moon to even hit half the bonus.

I've bought two copies, myself and my partners.

My estimate is that they might reach between 80-100m in revenue by March, that would give the former owners a decent bonus (staff not so much, but little is still something) but this wont really annoy Krafton at all, because if the game sits around that revenue, then it will be much much higher once the game finally release.

Remember the staff only gets 25m in best case scenario to share. I wish they would get the full bonus instead, they are the reason we have this game and the passion behind it.
But as I said, we can also be in situation where it ends up with nothing and Krafton gets all the gold.

[One Eyed King Is Potato]

also they hit 1mil copies in 4 hours of release crazy.