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The campaign is a lot about logistics. Protect your convoys (Bogues are good for providing CAP for convoys in dangerous areas) and use DDs/CLs to do a nighttime rush of additional troops & supplies (you need both) to Guadalcanal. Slowly adding ships and building appropriately mixed task forces. The game works pretty well if you follow historic patterns. e.g. Have fast task forces with 1~2 CVs, some DDs/CLs for ASW and AA, and separate surface TFs with BBs or CAs. I don't really use them much in vanilla, but it can be good to use shore bombardment to reduce enemy airfields so you don't have to deal with so much air.
Make sure you are putting lots of scout planes out (or picket subs) to spot enemy ships and then send air groups to sink them. Heavily armoured ships are generally best taken out with torpedoes (as are slow merchants), and when dive or level bombing make sure you've got the right bombs - HE for no/light armour, SAP/AP for more heavily armoured targets.
As a tactic, focus on getting level 2 airbases in range of Guadalcanal, that will allow you to control the waters around the island quite easily, then you can focus on getting troops on Guadalcanal. A mistake early players usually make is they believe they need to get onto Guadalcanal as early as possible. Doing so means you're setting yourself up for more difficulty as the AI isn't under the same constraints as you are, and you'll face a very serious uphill battle until mid-October 1942 at a minimum. Controlling the surrounding airspace means nothing gets in. (except submarine borne reinforcements, which never amount to much) This approach allows you to focus on building a good logistics system which can support building a serious surface/carrier fleet. Personally, I like getting Russell Islands as a first base (followed by Malaita then Rennell), and isolate the Floridas and Guadalcanal. Avenger bombers are extremely good at anti-ship operations, especially when used low level as skip bombers. A mere 3 Level 2 bases has the same firepower as a CV and have automatic replenishment to boot.
Based on observations...
It works a little of both ways. AI convoys will withdraw if 1 of 3 conditions applies: 1) They lose half their combat strength. 2) They lose half their transport ability. 3) They lose half the command points of the entire convoy.
My observation has been that the Ai considers combat strength based on the number of command points for the convoy.
E.g. if a convoy consisted of 2 CAs, 2 DDs, and 6 MS. Cmd pts = 14 pts. If you destroy 7 pts of ships, they'll retreat. The escort cmd pts = 8 pts, so if you destroy at least 4 pts of warships, they'll retreat. The transports cmd pts = 6 pts, so if you destroy at least 3 MS (3 pts), the convoy will retreat.
In the newest version, the AI is somewhat risk averse, so it dices to withdraw on the strategic map even if you heavily damage 1 CA from the example above.
1) I always try to bump multiple bases up to level 2 airfields. That allows for good airspace control. Not to mention that multiple dive/light bombers from just 3 fields is the equivalent of a carrier.
2) Always try to set up a level 3 port as close as possible once you have a good grasp on airspace. This provides a much closer replenishment location than having to all the way back to your home port
3) As to whether the AI does a full strategic withdrawal or not is somewhat speculative. As I stated, the AI is very risk averse now (I suppose the devs did that because we were abusing the AI's task forces so much). I've found that putting a minimum of 2 scout AC near the AI task force is useful. I mark TFs on the strategic map (use the p key) to determine the strategic speed of your target (a good rule of thumb though is to take the undamaged highest speed of the slowest ship in the TF and the TF's strategic speed is 75% of that. E.g. if there are any MS in the group, speed 18 * 0.75 = 13.5 -> 14 kns on the strategic map) This approach will allow you to space your scouts out from the battle site 30 minutes in likely directions (1 towards where the likely destination is and 1 towards that side's home port - do take into account islands; the AI does try to sail around them, despite what they seem to do in the tactical map) As stated previously, doing heavy damage to the biggest combatant in the AI's task force is usually good enough to get them to withdraw completely. If you sink a ship, the AI does not seem to take that into account as a loss to the TF, and it starts calculating all over again. This can lead to some weird situations when you've killed most/all of a transport convoy, and it will blindly continue towards its goal, even though the TF consists entirely of MS. If you use the 1/2 rule, I've found that provides better benefits in the long run. Of course, once you get serious air superiority, just beat the snot out of everything that comes near your bases. In the early game, sometimes you need to focus more on just getting AI TFs to withdraw instead of trying to destroy them.
Hope this helps.
Another trick you can use (especially in the rain when it's harder to 'spot' the AI TF on the map) is to jump to the tactical map every 15-30 minutes with scout planes when near where you expect an AI TF to be. The game tries to to make combat easier by spawning your AC near the AI TF. Note where the TF is on the tactical map, use the distance tool (\ key and mouse drag - but note you can't be paused for it to work). Note the distance in yards or meters and the angle from the center of the tactical map (not your AC), then exit. The AI TF on the strategic map is located the same distance and angle from the location of your AC on the strategic map (remember that 1 nm is 2025 yards or 1850m). Mark the TF's location on the strategic map using the marker tool (p key). I find using TF markers VERY useful.
Finally, once you've figured out where the TF is and its speed, you can use the marker tool to determine where that TF will be in the future assuming its course doesn't change. (it sometimes does, but once you determine likely objectives, you can steer for it by the AI TF) This method will allow you to concentrate forces (particularly airstrikes from all those Level 2 airfields you've likely set up by now) for a mass strike.
As I've said in other areas "Math - for the win!!"