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And from what we've seen, no. A couple of games were greenlighted almost right off the bat, long before they had any time to garner enough votes to bust the top 100.
For example, if you have a market of 75 people that like first person shooters, 10 people that like RTS, 10 that like platformers, 5 that like racing games then it's likely that of 800 games the top 100 will be mostly if not exclusively FPS games because they have a number of fans that greatly outnumber fans of the other genres. So if you took 10 games only from that top 100 they would all almost certainly be FPS games, but if you are selling 10 FPS games then it's likely that 75 people will buy 2-4 games which averages out to roughly only 225 sales. But in the same market you sell 5 FPS games, 2 RTS games, 2 platformers and a racing game you could still be selling 2-4 games to the each of the 75 FPS fans, but you'll also be able to sell 1-2 RTS games to each of the 10 RTS fans, 1-2 platerformers to each of the 10 platformer fans and a game to each of the 5 racing fans so you could be getting 25-45 more game sales by selling less popular games too.
So if all the most popular games are too similar Valve is likely to want to look at greenlighting less popular games that are different because they can be sold to different customers, though they are probably going to be the most popular of their type so I guess technically they could still be called "the most popular games" ;).
Top 10 to 20 if you want to be greenlit in the next batch, at least that's how it's worked so far, as they've definitely taken the top ranked games.
Proof? A game I worked on was ranked 33rd from early on, they greenlit 10 games, we moved up to 23rd, they greenlit another 21 games, we moved up to 2nd, so will hopefully be greenlit in the next batch of games.
We did a bit of promotion to get there - YouTube videos, interviews, press releases, directing fans from our website, etc - but the majority of votes came from people just finding our game on Greenlight themselves and liking it. If you have a decent quality game, it will get votes, PR helps but won't be enough on it's own.
If you're out of Top 100 you're not likely to be greenlit any time soon but if you do make it into the Top 100 you'll be greenlit eventually as the games ahead of you make it on.
You can't upvote a game more than once.
Most people vote on a game in the first few days or not at all.
As people near the top of the pile can be overtaken rapidly by new games, I don't see how a game gains any advantage from being on Greenlight for months.
They DO gain votes from having work done on them.
Yeah, in my example I was using "people" who only like one genre, obviously in reality there's a lot of overlap with people buying games from many genres, but because not everyone likes the same thing there will always be people who do not like the popular games. Take McPixel for instance, a popular game but many people also hated it with a passion, if you were only selling McPixel type games then you wouldn't get any sales from the people that hate McPixel, but if you also sell something completely different but that's not as popular you might be able to sell that to some of those people to get their money as well as the money you'd get from McPixel fans.
The main flaw with my example that I should probably bring up is that the most popular games are relatively diverse already, so Valve already get a decent mix from the top 10, but I'm sure that on occasion they'll look further down the list to find something in an area that is being under represented on Steam in order to sell more games to the people that like particular niche.
You have to remember that the sampling of votes are going to be a fair representation of the rest of Steam's customers so it's always going to be the safest bet (the one that brings Valve the most money) to pick only the top ranked games. Yes, they may be interested in the niche games but more of them are going to be buying the top ranked titles.
I agree with that, but they could do better by occasionally picking the highest ranked game in specific niche/genre that they don't have many games from even if it's actually a lower ranked game, and they've already done it once or twice by the sounds of it (though I could be wrong on that). Obviously most of the games should be the top ranked ones though. Think of Steam like a drinks vending machine, many of the buttons are likely to be for coke (popular) but there will still be a few buttons for other drinks (niche) because it means they can sell to a larger market and make more money.
Again customers have a finite amount of money, if you over saturate just the popular games then you end up making less money because people who want the popular games will be unable to buy them all anyway. If you only release enough popular games that you are just barely releasing more games than people can afford and also a couple of niche games you can make more money because your market is much larger.