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My guess would be Next Gen...
Although some people say Valve can't count to 3...
If all the stories are correct then we will see valve new console released this year (2013) and no doubt half-life 3 to boot. But valve havn't given any details as yet, keeping tigh lipped as ever.
I say it will be exclusive for one reason, why would valve release half-life 3 on other platforms when they will be trying to make their own console a success.
I'm not so sure it's a good bet to think that HL3 will be a launch title, or even a first year title for the Steam Box. Unless this thing is going to be really ridiculously specced out for a $400-500 price, they'll risk alienating their core audience by not making HL3 a full high-end PC title first and foremost.
I'm also not sure the Steam Box is going to be set up as a direct competitor to the standard consoles from the big 3. Microsoft lost a ton of money getting the x-box to where it is today. I'm not sure Valve can afford to try and be anything other than an alternative console (like, say, the Neo Geo was) for its first iteration.
It'd be a pretty ballsy, and some might even say foolish, move for Valve to make their next titles Steam Box/PC exclusives.
The exception to this is Counter Strike, which has technically had 4 entries in the series:
CS; CS:CZ; CS:S; CS:GO
Even if you don't count CS:CZ, that's still 3 games.
DOTA 2 is technically only one game too, if you think about it. Valve had nothing to do with the original, which wasn't even a commercial product.
It's pretty understandable to not realize it unless you've been around for a long time. There's like 5-6 years between each game, and a lot of people probably don't even remember CZ. There was an Xbox version of CS too, which was almost a game on its own since it was a hybrid of content from CS and CS:CZ. Think it might have had a little exclusive content too, but it's been so long that I can't quite remember.
If your trying to push your own console, then why would people buy your console if you can get the same game on a rival console.
Valve will be trying their hardest to push this new console and im sure half-life 3 will make people buy it. It would be like the next halo appearing on the PS3, isn't going to happen.
Probably won't be an Ep 3. I mean the whole point of the episodes was because they could release them faster than sequels, so why even bother now?
Half-Life 3 will probably just pick up from where Ep 2 left off and finish off the series.
Myself, I'd like to see Opposing Force 2. :P