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So Backpack TF (ever only accepting price rises) and the community market beta (only letting us sell keys, not metal) are not the reason but it's Outpost?! A non-automated trading site?!
Really?
Edit: What are you guys conclusions to all this? Can this be ANY healthy for the TF2 economy? Will prices crash once keys reach like 8 ref a key and no person in their right mind could/would buy them?
A well painted Bill is now pretty much worth 50 refined xD A whole BP page.
Refined is free. Keys are not.
Lol of course, but Bill black paint can still be sold for 10 keys which means it can be sold for 50 ref instead of 26 ref a few months ago.
It's not like the amount of ref floating around has doubled recently, it's more of hype than any real change in numbers of metal to keys.
Well, I only said more of a hype. Meaning there's just alot of key demand right now which brings us back to the community market beta, Backpack TF and basic supply/demand (of which only demand seemed to have really changed according to the item statistics).
Crafting is not commonly used. In most cases (apart of new items having been released) it's a complete loss and I mean there's no chance for an unusual. That's why uncrating is not completely a loss because you could possibly get a 120 bud Flaming Team Captain. But crafting, apart of as you mentioned low craft numbers just after an update is a complete waste with no serious chance of much good to be received.
I really believe metal could be easily revived by giving us some more options with it. Such as allowing metal to be traded for steam funds or some sort of lottery (waste a "free" ref to get a chance of a free weapon and or hat/misc at low chances).
Idk, maybe it all doesn't matter and things will just figure themselves out when keys hit that unpayable region and crash hard.
Anyways if you guys can push a key to a rediculous 10 ref each I'll be ready to trade 50 keys for 500 ref ;)
1 account for 8 hr = 10 weapons.
Let says he use 2 account per day -> 20 weapons per day
1 week -> 140 weapons -> ~7ref
7 ref/week if idler can only run 1 at a time.
Let says typical pc can run 10 accouts at a time -> 70ref/week
If the tf2 idle bot become common, I'm quite sure metal will be so dirt cheap.
Also if you think going all premium are expensive, they don't need to go premium until they get 40+ ref in F2P accout (will take about a year though). $5 for 40ref is very cheap.
And after that they can generate 70ref/week FREE.
Damn, I never thought about this before.
This would all be true if the REF to Key amount according to the statistics had drastically changed. Yet it only went up a little.
There's still a key for every 3.33-3.66 ref in existance.
Not to mention that running 10 idle accounts on one machine at once would get you banned, would be easy to detect as every computer only has 1 mac adress.
At a rare chance when token crafting you may get a Mannly Weapon. Mannly weapons apear as shiney particle versions of Weapons. The chance is very rare so it'd create a nice little sink or a nice boon for some lucky guy! Plus I would love to have a particle or heck, just a different color shotgun.
Kinda goes back to that thing about the White Shotgun or Golden Wrench when crafting came out.
That'd certainly cause a dip i metal reserves I'd wager!
Nice idea. Yeah I mean I'm not even trying to start a revolution here but some very small chance at a very special item through crafting could make ref become higher demand instantly.
As said in OP, Valve, do something? Anything?
Or let the market regulate itself, I really don't mind either way as I'm in a comfortable position "wealth" wise either way.
Still, I do/did think the situation was atleast important enough to create this discussion so I'm not completely careless towards the key market, ofc.
How do you get one...only hope is with a key.
Whats metal worth? Its free drop, so why wouldn't it cost 5 ref for a key.
This 3.33 number you pull out of no where is like saying a mercedes benz slr should be worth 20k, why? Because you say so?
Tf has issues but on this one they are right.
Valve won't do anythiing because its irrational to do something. When governments try to force against market by price controls or rationing, you get bubbles and economic collapse. The price of keys reflects market demand, the people who really want keys, get them, as it should be. If you think its unfair, too bad. Its not up to you to force other people to sell their stuff to you at your price after all.
The major issue is some of you have gotten it into your head that you are entitled access to keys, when that was never the case, keys are a pay item, if you can pay metal, consider yourself lucky.
Furthermore the level o basic failure to understand basic econ/market principles on this matter is a bit disturbing. Just on the matter of considering metal a currency vs money.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQPSwA2Itbs watch 45 minutes in as bitcoin is explained. Then compare and contrast with metal, and you will understand why metal is fundamentally broken and why it behaves as it does vs keys.
And realize it doesn't matter, because metal was a baseline currency to give f2p types access to the basics of tf2, normal weapons, dirty miscs and the rest. It was never meant to give people access to keys, thats a bonus, an unecessary for metal in its current form.
To fix metal requires charging for it, no free drops, making the same people complaining about keys just as unhappy as before, if not more so. Changing the level of difficulty to bitcoin level to make it a valid currency would only do the same, I doubt people complaining about key prices have large banks of high powered gpu arrays ready to crunch metal bitcoin...
Nope. Inflation. The thing is, metal keeps entering the market too fast and isn't being used up. Crafting really isn't that worth it, so people keep their metal to trade it. What would happen if the goverment magically pumped billions and billions of dollars into the market? Prices would rise, because money would be worth less because of all the extra money that got pumped in the market.
Nope. It just needs a good use so people actually want it for something to use other than a currency.
Basic economics.
Inflation is directly related to how metal is generated. So why you are saying nope I don't know why, its like you haven't bothered to educate yourself on bitcoin at all, I've led to you water, I can' t force you to drink.
Nope, it doesn't matter how people use it is the foundation is rotten. People "used" money in prewar germany to buy bread, it was "useful", but it took a wheel barrow full of notes to pay for the loaf of bread, thats the problem.
The foundation for value doesn't exist for metal, and it will never exist because you fail to understand its purpose as a entry level token currency for f2p/casuals so they can get/craft every low value item required to play the game. That it doesn't buy expensive things well is of no concern to anyone, let alone valve.
Don't let yourself be confused over the idea that papa gaben is "paying you" to play video games, he isn't...