Cuesion Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:32pm
1 Key - 3.88 - 4.66 REFINED???
Yes, i have seen this price and i am amazed, refined's value has went down, a lot, and if you ask me it isn't logical.
1 Key 2.66 - 3.33 Refined, has 1/20 chance of getting a hat from a crate
3 Refined crafts a hat, a guaranteed hat.
Simple logic, this should be changed.
Showing 1-15 of 57 comments
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GPB [Foxy] Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:34pm 
Wait, so that price is actually REAL? I thought people were joking?

God damn it traders, there's no reason for Refined Metal to go down in value. Just because Metal/Keys are made/bought/crafted and are brought up or down in number does NOT mean their value increases/decreases. Because the supply will shoot right back up very quickly. There will always be keys bought, always be metal crafted. Not to mention metal is a renewable resource in TF2!
Cuesion Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:34pm 
Nope it IS real
At the momment
GPB [Foxy] Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:36pm 
Originally posted by Cuesion:
Nope it IS real
At the momment

I stopped trading for a year or so, and this happened?...

It really makes no sense. I always thought Metal should go off of the cash value of the Key. 2.55 dollars for a key, so 2.55 metal for a Key. Makes sense. One scrap is equivalent to 10 cents. Now, for any items that aren't in the store? Well, those prices can be made up in any way the ♥♥♥♥♥ that run the trading want.
Cuesion Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:38pm 
short story
---------------
Well, a dupulicator came on team fortress 2 and ♥♥♥♥ got real
GPB [Foxy] Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:42pm 
Originally posted by Cuesion:
short story
---------------
Well, a dupulicator came on team fortress 2 and ♥♥♥♥ got real

That's a crappy excuse for raising the price. That means those who own keys win, while those who own Metal are screwed. It's just tipping the balance more and more so the Rich traders have an advantage.
Octavia Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:43pm 
Originally posted by MC Ham-mer Botan:
Wait, so that price is actually REAL? I thought people were joking?

God damn it traders, there's no reason for Refined Metal to go down in value. Just because Metal/Keys are made/bought/crafted and are brought up or down in number does NOT mean their value increases/decreases. Because the supply will shoot right back up very quickly. There will always be keys bought, always be metal crafted. Not to mention metal is a renewable resource in TF2!

The issue is that Metal really has no use, because virtually everything that can be made with it is able to be purchased from other sources for less; just look at Hats, weapons and anything else that can be crafted from Metal. Virtually nothing, if anything, has a superior price compared to the crafting value, so virtually no Metal is being taken out of the economy; the only use for it is trading, which means nothing gets taken out of the supply pool, but merely changes hands.

Keys are a different matter, because they actually have an incentive that people use to reduce their supply, so the answer to this problem, if Valve wants to fix it, is simple. Give Metal a use that is unique to Metal itself, which will give people an incentive to use it rather than trade it, and assuming this unique use is good enough, the value of Metal will stabilize; it's really as simple as that, and Valve has had plenty of opportunities to do so, but they simply haven't. A plethora of items with an acceptable level of demand could be made craft-able, but they need to be unique in order to reduce the large supply of Metal, otherwise people will just use Metal as a trading instrument in order to obtain them.

Keys keep 'rising' in value because they have a use which removes them from the game, while also being in a more limited supply due to real-life money being required, while Metal keeps losing value because there's no incentive to remove it or transmute it into another form, it is free, and the only use it really has is as a commodity to trade. Coupled with the fact that anything made via Metal isn't unique and can easily be purchased for less Metal than the crafting requirement, and you end up seeing the problem for what it is.
MA☝Omgwtfbbqstfu™ Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:44pm 
Originally posted by Cuesion:
Yes, i have seen this price and i am amazed, refined's value has went down, a lot, and if you ask me it isn't logical.
1 Key 2.66 - 3.33 Refined, has 1/20 chance of getting a hat from a crate
3 Refined crafts a hat, a guaranteed hat.
Simple logic, this should be changed.


Logic? No, logic says you are not understanding market principles because the fundamental issue is this, metal is distributed without merit, without work, without market forces guiding its distribution. Everyone gets paid the same, the same handout, communist style Some of you are confusing your digital handout from the gaben with digital currency, when its frankly not. Google bitcoin and how it works, if you don't want to read, look at the

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQPSwA2Itbs

(he starts explaining bitcoin about 45 minutes into the podcast) that one and i'm sure several other security now podcasts iwth steve gibson explained in detail how bitcoin generation actually works. What it takes to keep a digital currency viable is something you guys really need to wrap your head around. The way they keep bitcoin linked to merit is that the system naturally ramps up difficulty to mine bitcoin based on the amount found and the processing power out there. So at this point it is so hard to find bitcoin that you need powerful multigpu rigs and or combined pools of processing power with groups of people to find any at all, its that hard. So imagine applying that to tf2...it would never work. People expect their digital handout for no work at all, so you have the problem of inflation, because it is natural and expected for such a system.

The actual solution is to make metal a pay only item, aka keys lite. But f2p's and many others would really really not like this. So you have to live with a system that caters to two different types of customers at the same time, and the artifacts that come about from it. Crafting gold weapons wouldn't do anything because they would be undesirable just from how they were made.

How many craft recipes is not important, what the guy said above is just wrong. It doesn't matter what you can do with the metal, the problem is fundamnetally in how metal is aquired. Keys area born of money. Metal is born of free.
Last edited by MA☝Omgwtfbbqstfu™; Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:47pm
GPB [Foxy] Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:47pm 
But there will always be Keys in circulation, no matter what. It'll never become an 'endangered item' like the Batter's Helm or V. Items. If someone uses 500 to open crates for a Youtube video or something, there will still be thousands of Keys out there. It's an infinite resource that is renewed because of the big number of people in this game who spend money on them. Until we have a shortage of Keys(less than 1000) they should never be subject to a price hike of 1 or more Refined, even if Refined have lost their worth. With 3 Refined, I can make a hat, possibly a hat that would give me more Keys than I traded for that Metal.

The Supply/Demand just doesn't need to be applied to this Mannconomy.
Octavia Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:52pm 
Originally posted by MA☝Omgwtfbbqstfu™:
How many craft recipes is not important, what the guy said above is just wrong. It doesn't matter what you can do with the metal, the problem is fundamnetally in how metal is aquired. Keys area born of money. Metal is born of free.

Actual uses can remove Metal from supply, which does increase value; if an item literally has no method to exit the economy and just changes hands, it will devalue at some point. If an item can be removed from the economy, even if the spawning method is free, it will either devalue less or even stabilize due to how there's actual a demand for it beyond mere use as a currency without a sink.

Part of the issue is the fact that Metal is free, but the fact that it has virtually no 'sink' that players use is also a problem; Keys would be superior in value either way, but I sincerely doubt Keys would be at the same price if they were never removed from the economy via Crates, and people had the same mentality of using it as a 'value', akin to Metal.
MA☝Omgwtfbbqstfu™ Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:54pm 
Originally posted by MC Ham-mer Botan:
But there will always be Keys in circulation, no matter what. It'll never become an 'endangered item' like the Batter's Helm or V. Items. If someone uses 500 to open crates for a Youtube video or something, there will still be thousands of Keys out there. It's an infinite resource that is renewed because of the big number of people in this game who spend money on them. Until we have a shortage of Keys(less than 1000) they should never be subject to a price hike of 1 or more Refined, even if Refined have lost their worth. With 3 Refined, I can make a hat, possibly a hat that would give me more Keys than I traded for that Metal.

The Supply/Demand just doesn't need to be applied to this Mannconomy.

Supply demand always applies.

There are thousands of keys out there because at some point, someone spent real money to get one. Keys are paid with money. Money is NOT an unlimited resource. The very fact that its so hard for metal buyers to get keys just shows you that keys are not common.

Why do you think it would take a shortage before a price hike of 1 ref. You are confusing metal with something of value.

Do tell what did you do to get your metal?

The answer is you played a video game.

Are you really telliing me you are being paid to play a video game?

This is the fundamental absurdity of metal, and its why it can't compete when items born of money are in the system. With the addition of the marketplace this difference is only becoming more stark. As I said, go look up bitcoin/watch that video, inform yourself on what it takes for digital currencies to be viable..and you will see why metal has a problem.
Brian Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:57pm 
If there is no trading:

1. You HAVE to buy a key from the store. You cannot find it.
2. You can find metal every week, which equals an over abundance.
Last edited by Brian; Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:57pm
M'aiq the Liar (Banned) Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:57pm 
Yes but it would it also need a reason like Octavia said to Consume metal because there isnt much reason to actaully spend metal on crafting since you trade for it cheaper then crafting.If it was just added to the store and removed from drops by itself it wouldnt bounce back without a better reason to actaully use the metal.Otherwise metal would just Constantly increase in supply still lowering price. I agree though thats half the Solution it also needs a reason to Consume though.
MA☝Omgwtfbbqstfu™ Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:59pm 
Originally posted by Octavia:
Originally posted by MA☝Omgwtfbbqstfu™:
How many craft recipes is not important, what the guy said above is just wrong. It doesn't matter what you can do with the metal, the problem is fundamnetally in how metal is aquired. Keys area born of money. Metal is born of free.

Actual uses can remove Metal from supply, which does increase value; if an item literally has no method to exit the economy and just changes hands, it will devalue at some point. If an item can be removed from the economy, even if the spawning method is free, it will either devalue less or even stabilize due to how there's actual a demand for it beyond mere use as a currency without a sink.

Part of the issue is the fact that Metal is free, but the fact that it has virtually no 'sink' that players use is also a problem; Keys would be superior in value either way, but I sincerely doubt Keys would be at the same price if they were never removed from the economy via Crates, and people had the same mentality of using it as a 'value', akin to Metal.

It doesn't matter how much you remove from the supply, its just not linked to anything of value. Metal is money everyone can print. Metal is weak at its foundation, so anything you do with it is a problem.

Keys value has little to do with being rare. They are linked to both cash and are the key to unusuals. There are hundreds of thousands in circulation last time I heard. But it really comes down to this, a key never just magically appears in your backpack just because you spent a little time on a server.
MA☝Omgwtfbbqstfu™ Apr 10, 2013 @ 9:02pm 
Originally posted by IronMaiden:
Yes but it would it also need a reason like Octavia said to Consume metal because there isnt much reason to actaully spend metal on crafting since you trade for it cheaper then crafting.If it was just added to the store and removed from drops by itself it wouldnt bounce back without a better reason to actaully use the metal.Otherwise metal would just Constantly increase in supply still lowering price. I agree though thats half the Solution it also needs a reason to Consume though.

As I said already, and even the guy above says it... you MUST buy keys at some point.

Metal appears in your backpack, as if by magic..while you do next to nothing. This NEVER happens with keys. On that basis alone you should see the fundamental difference between the two items and why metal, no matter how much is consumed is just not going to be valued by the market. Valve won't ever allow metal to craft chances at unusuals or the rest because they are smart enough not to destroy the market which requires faith in value, esp at the high end. So metal will remain for small crafts and will remain mostly useless.

The problem is not supply, it is the method of generation. The market is rational, and it has worked out this truth, metal comes from nothing, and so its value is always going to be weak.

Well not useless because metal buys low end cosmetics just fine, its only ever a problem when f2p types think they should have access to luxury items.
Last edited by MA☝Omgwtfbbqstfu™; Apr 10, 2013 @ 9:04pm
Octavia Apr 10, 2013 @ 9:03pm 
Originally posted by MA☝Omgwtfbbqstfu™:
It doesn't matter how much you remove from the supply, its just not linked to anything of value. Metal is money everyone can print. Metal is weak at its foundation, so anything you do with it is a problem.

Keys value has little to do with being rare. They are linked to both cash and are the key to unusuals. There are hundreds of thousands in circulation last time I heard. But it really comes down to this, a key never just magically appears in your backpack just because you spent a little time on a server.

So wait, you're saying that actually giving Metal a use wouldn't assist in limiting the dropping value? If it's money everyone can print, but can only use for trading, it's a different scenario than a commodity people can use for trading or can use in another way to remove it from the economy.

If Keys had no use, and were mere currency, they wouldn't have the value now; the supply would be higher because, short of deletion, no Keys would ever be removed from the economy. I'm not arguing that Keys are worth more because they are linked to money, but it's basic logic that something with a use will have more value than something without; currently, Metal has no use so the value is less than if it did.

If Keys were never used to open Crates or spawn items, 'sinks' in that regard, they simply wouldn't possess the same value they currently do because there would both be less demand from people buying with the intent to 'consume' them and because the supply would be higher, mainly because no consumption method would exist.
Last edited by Octavia; Apr 10, 2013 @ 9:04pm
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Date Posted: Apr 10, 2013 @ 8:32pm
Posts: 57