cheapskate elf

[Rapscallion]

I'm more than 20 hs in the game, still haven't beat it (i know, I suck). during this many hours I encountered this elf that offers a 1/3 chance to win a price. I found him LOTS of times. I have never won, not even once. statistically speaking I should have won AT LEAST once. so my question is: does that work at all? or is it a scam? if it DOES work, are the chances of winning WAY below what it should be? I know that doesn't make sense, if there are 3 chests and only 1 has a price the chances are 1 in 3, or 33%, whatever, but maybe there's a catch, like, even if he says there is a price, there isn't most of the time. I don't know, this has me very confused.

PS: sorry, english is not my native language.

[a hedgehog]

You can win - I have won many times. There is no secret or catch, it is just luck.

[Rapscallion]

thanks for the response! so I guess I'm extremely unlucky =( because I should have won at least once. now that I now that it works I won't be skipping it, because that's what I started doing recently, when I started suspecting that it was some sort of scam.

[carlmckie]

I won on my first try :)

[Pixel Peeper]

I lost on my 2 or 3 first attempts, so I had my doubts too. But I kept trying and eventually won.

Apparently a Spelunker's helm light can tell you which chest is the right one with 100% accuracy. Never tried it though.

[Rapscallion]

wow, you blew my mind with that. it never ocurred to me. I wanna try the spelunker to see if that works. too bad that I hate the spelunker -.-

[I'm Mr. Meseeks, look at me!ݴ]

Lol that's what it does? didn't know the light did anything but drain mana, anyway i'm in newgame+ now so I can't go spelunker or I die way fast

[Terwox]

Statistically speaking, someone is bound to be in your situation. It happens to be you. :)

[TBOSS EU]

I've found out that when you come across an elf in the castle part, it's always the chest that is closest to the elf. Works for me. Don't know about the other places.

[Rapscallion]

mmm thanks, i will try that, it's more feasible for me than to use the spelunker.

[Elrieve]

Oprindeligt skrevet af Terwox:

Statistically speaking, someone is bound to be in your situation. It happens to be you. :)

The tail of that exponential distribution is a sad, lonely place.

[Deign]

Oprindeligt skrevet af Elrieve:

Oprindeligt skrevet af Terwox:

Statistically speaking, someone is bound to be in your situation. It happens to be you. :)

The tail of that exponential distribution is a sad, lonely place.

Not if you're on the one for winning :)
I've won more times than I've lost, not by much, but enough to make me a happy man

[otacon]

It took me eight or nine times before i hit his jackpot for the first time.

[Icedfate]

it's winnable but i always ignore him, it's not worth it.
I find that in video games 33% chance is almost guaranteed failure.
most video games that use % mechanics it seems like you have to have 90% to consistently succeed.
I heard that the spelunkette can cheat but I never tried it

[Deign]

Oprindeligt skrevet af eviltwin61878:

it's winnable but i always ignore him, it's not worth it.
I find that in video games 33% chance is almost guaranteed failure.
most video games that use % mechanics it seems like you have to have 90% to consistently succeed.
I heard that the spelunkette can cheat but I never tried it

Mathematically speaking, it is always worth it. The triple your investment simply breaks even over many attempts, but as soon as you have any gold modifier, you gain more than you'll ever lose.

[Kelloggs]

Oprindeligt skrevet af Deign:

Oprindeligt skrevet af eviltwin61878:

it's winnable but i always ignore him, it's not worth it.
I find that in video games 33% chance is almost guaranteed failure.
most video games that use % mechanics it seems like you have to have 90% to consistently succeed.
I heard that the spelunkette can cheat but I never tried it

Mathematically speaking, it is always worth it.

Exactly, I couldn't agree more....

I always accept, no matter what... and just reach for the very first chest everytime.

I've won I few times.