The Book of Unwritten Tales

### The Book of Unwritten Tales

Chrogion 2013년 4월 20일 오전 7시 24분
fortune wheel probability
After you have "guessed" the color on the wheel of fortune correctly for 3 times there is a dialog option that says that the probability is 1 to 4096. Is this really correct? To my understanding we have:

4 different colors
3 independent guesses

where each guess has a probability of 1/4 = 25%
Because each guess is independent, we have a total probability of (1/4)^3 to guess correctly three times in a row (where ^ denotes the power operator)

(1/4)^3 = 4^(-3) = 1/64 = 1.5625% which is different from 1/4096 (approximately 0.02 percent)

Is the calculation in the game incorrect or have I made a mistake?
Chrogion님이 마지막으로 수정; 2013년 4월 20일 오전 10시 25분
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mendel 2013년 4월 20일 오후 3시 41분
The calculation in the game is incorrect, I noticed that too when I first played it. If you had to guess the exact slot on the wheel each time, you'd get 4096=16^3. My guess was that the game designers initially planned it that way and then found the puzzle takes too long and gets tedious.

In addition, the nails on the wheel are in the wrong position. They need to be on the borders between colored areas and not in the middle, so that when the swinging peg ends up between two nails, it is clear what area it is on..
mikeydsc 2013년 9월 14일 오후 5시 21분
so we really do have to guess 3 times? I have been at this spot for an hour now and getting tired of this ridiculous low odds of guessing 3 in a row...must be some trick to this?
۞Lodi 2013년 9월 14일 오후 5시 47분
look into the future and guess the first one right.
mikeydsc 2013년 9월 14일 오후 11시 38분
I wont spoil what it ended up being but it sure was easier than it looks
MASTAN 2013년 9월 15일 오전 6시 04분
The game does not mention that 1 in 4096 is correct answer. I tried 1 in 4096 and one in a million, and both times merchant said it was correct. So the merchant lacks math skills, not the game.
Jhoonaz 2013년 9월 16일 오후 2시 36분
sexcatly
Chaos "Fox" Overlord 2014년 12월 6일 오후 1시 44분
I know this toppic is over an year old, but thats not a reason to add a fun fact:
If you look closely at the concept art of the scene at the end of the game, you will discover, that the weel has not only four colours: It has also 4 symbols combined with the colours. So there is a red, green, yellow and blue version of every symbol. It seems, that it was indeed planed with a probability of 1/4096.
Chaos "Fox" Overlord님이 마지막으로 수정; 2014년 12월 6일 오후 1시 45분
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게시된 날짜: 2013년 4월 20일 오전 7시 24분
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