When RNG Freaks out

[Fregi]

tfw you face the exact same ship

(Auto scout with no shields)

THREE TIMES IN A ROW.

[Nulien]

I'd be very okay with that. Easy scrap.

[it's past my bedtime]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2ZGBNpYo5g

Time for another discussion on RNG.

RNG is psuedorandom. For the purposes of this game, since we're not doing quantum physics, chaos theory, or cryptography, this is essentially random.

You understand randomness, right? Randomness means that anything can happen, no matter the odds, unless the odds are zero. For example, suppose that you have a fifty percent dodge chance, and the enemy fire two Burst Lasers Mk. IIs at you. That's six projectiles. Though, on average, three shots will miss, and three shots will hit, it is entirely possible for all six shots to hit or miss, though it is very unlikely.

I'm anticipating shareofhonor coming along and making a debate about this if he isn't banned, since he has. . . contrary opinions on certain subjects, especially when they relate to RNG.

[Nulien]

http://dilbert.com/strip/2001-10-25

[Sirius]

As gone once more said, it's about probabilities.

There is no actual law that says you can't have the same event being "rolled" several times in a row.

What you have experienced is an anomaly, but only because your brain says it is.
What you didn't (consciously) notice was that before and probably after, you had a similar sequence of perfectly unconnected (not the same) events in a row. You didn't sit up and went "That's unusual!"

Yet that is as likely as getting the same three times.

[Ruinae Retroque Rursus]

I remember a comic one of my books had.

Suppose you have two coins.
You toss one 99 times and get Heads all rounds. The next one should be tails, eh?
Then two demented gerbils (?!) jump on the table and knock the coins around. You pull out a handy Gerbil-B-Gone spray from your pocket.

Now which one was more likely to fall tails?

[domitpaul]

Originally posted by aidenpons:

I remember a comic one of my books had.

Suppose you have two coins.
You toss one 99 times and get Heads all rounds. The next one should be tails, eh?
Then two demented gerbils (?!) jump on the table and knock the coins around. You pull out a handy Gerbil-B-Gone spray from your pocket.

Now which one was more likely to fall tails?

I love that one! keep hitting wrong keys from still laughing about the gerbils....thanks for making my morrning.

[gall0ws]

Originally posted by |x|SiriuS|x|:

Yet that is as likely as getting the same three times.

Actually not, according the binomial distribution. Anyway you're right that is possible (p>0) and our brain tends to detect that like a glitch.

[Ruinae Retroque Rursus]

Originally posted by domitpaul:

Originally posted by aidenpons:

I remember a comic one of my books had.

Suppose you have two coins.
You toss one 99 times and get Heads all rounds. The next one should be tails, eh?
Then two demented gerbils (?!) jump on the table and knock the coins around. You pull out a handy Gerbil-B-Gone spray from your pocket.

Now which one was more likely to fall tails?

I love that one! keep hitting wrong keys from still laughing about the gerbils....thanks for making my morrning.

That was my childhood :)

Here, have a scan which probably infringes half of the copyright laws in existence:
{LINK REMOVED}https://snag.gy/pGjse2.jpg


Amazing books for children... the only reason I enjoy Maths so much and an able to do so much with it were these " Murderous Maths " books... amazing things. They're helpful for schoolwork too - about the whole of Primary School or whatever you non-NZers call it - until about, oh, 15 years old? Even then they're still relevant and amusing.
That picture came out of Do You Feel Lucky, the book on probability....
Google it!

[DarkExcalibur42]

Just going to say... if the RNG was a RELIABLE number generator, then it wouldn't be very random.... No one rolls dice because they reliably give you a predictable result.

The title of this thread has bothered me for a while.

[gall0ws]

Originally posted by DarkExcalibur42:

Just going to say... if the RNG was a RELIABLE number generator, then it wouldn't be very random.... No one rolls dice because they reliably give you a predictable result.

The title of this thread has bothered me for a while.

No, if you use a fair dice you perfectly know the *distribution*, not the single outcome. So yes, it's pretty random.
If your software use the classic rand() the outcome is actually pretty guessable because it's a seeded algorithm (usually based on time of execution). Anyway, it's good enough.

[DarkExcalibur42]

Yes, I do know how computers produce "random" numbers. But they are, for practical purposes, random. Because there's no way for me to sit here while gaming and GUESS the outcome of any of the rolls.

Theoretically, if my brain had sufficient computing power, I probably could and I would be able to. But yeah for human beings, the RNG is not practically predictable....

But a reliable (i.e. consistent) number generator would be like a button that every time you press it you get "6". So yes, RNGs are specifically unreliable. Key word specific.

[gall0ws]

Obligatory xkcd reference: https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/random_number.png

[DarkExcalibur42]

lol, win

[domitpaul]

That was my childhood :)

Here, have a scan which probably infringes half of the copyright laws in existence:
{LINK REMOVED}https://snag.gy/pGjse2.jpg


Amazing books for children... the only reason I enjoy Maths so much and an able to do so much with it were these " Murderous Maths " books... amazing things. They're helpful for schoolwork too - about the whole of Primary School or whatever you non-NZers call it - until about, oh, 15 years old? Even then they're still relevant and amusing.
That picture came out of Do You Feel Lucky, the book on probability....
Google it! [/quote]
Some how the visual just makes if even funnier.....thanks